With mergers-and-acquisitions activity at a record-breaking fever pitch, it’s indisputable that 2015 has been a great year to be an M&A banker. Many expect that to be the case in 2016 as well, while others aren’t so sure.
This year set the record year for M&A dealmaking, with $4.2 trillion of transactions pending or completed, according to Bloomberg.
There were eight transactions in 2015 that exceeded $50bn, which is another record.
That means that M&A specialists at the top investment banks are likely to receive meaty bonuses for their efforts this year. But how long will the salad days last?
There’s some concern because the two previous high-water marks for global M&A volumes, 2007 and 2002, experienced stomach-churning corrections the following year.
For now, though, business is quite good. The top three financial institutions in terms of the value of M&A deals that they worked on in 2015 are all headquartered in the U.S. Goldman Sachs advised on $1.41 trillion worth of deals, topping the league tables and setting an all-time firm record. Morgan Stanley advised on $1.37 trillion worth of deals, good for second place globally, while JPMorgan advised on $1.30 trillion worth of deals this year to secure third place.
More broadly, U.S. banks earned $35.6bn of the $72.7bn in fees for equity and debt deals, syndicated loans, and M&A transactions from January 1 through December 17, according to Dealogic.
That’s a whopping 49% of global investment-banking fees this year, the biggest slice of the global pie since 2002. Six of the top 10 banks in the world by investment-banking fees are US-based institutions, including the entire top five.
Across the pond, the outlook isn’t quite so sunny.
European banks earned a 30% share of global investment banking fees, a record low. The fee pool in the U.S. was $35.2bn year-to-date as of Dec. 17, per Dealogic, compared to $17.7bn in fees in Europe and $13.6bn in Asia over the same time period.
Still, regardless of where you’re located, at the moment it’s better to be an M&A banker than a fixed income trader.
For a start, the high-yield bond space is undergoing a “retrenchment.”
Of considerably more concern is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s increased scrutiny of securities trading related to mortgages and auto loans. Wall Street’s main regulator has uncovered an unhealthy number of red flags – from huge, eyebrow-raising price mark-ups on bond sales to shady kickbacks for middlemen brokers – representing billions of dollars in fixed income trades.
John Cryan was recently tapped to serve as Deutsche Bank’s co-CEO and has already pledged to shrink its investment banking activities. Now DB is set to slip to third place on the annual league tables of banks that handle the most European bond sales.
Just last month, European banks announced more than 30,000 job cuts, including 11,000 at Deutsche Bank, 15,000 at Standard Chartered and 5,600 at Credit Suisse, according to Bloomberg.
Hopefully, M&A bankers will spread Christmas cheer by picking up the bar tab for their downtrodden fixed income colleagues.
Meanwhile:
This new credential could catapult you to the top of your company’s finance department. (WSJ)
Where are the best and worst places for working women by combining data on pay, child-care costs and representation in senior jobs? (The Economist)
The best photos of the year related to business and finance. (WSJ)
These IT professionals told their boss, “Take this job and shove it!” (InfoWorld)
They likely won’t be unemployed for long, because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) predicts that IT jobs will grow 12% over the next decade, with programmers the only area of slow growth. (ComputerWorld)
China, property and external risks remain top-of-mind among U.S. investors considering whether to go all in or cash out their investments in Asia-Pacific (APAC) developed-market (DM) banks, according to Fitch Ratings. (Reuters)
“Holacracy” – the decentralization of authority, for example, the devolution of power from the C-suite to front-line employees – became a buzzword in 2015, but hierarchical structures still survive and may be necessary to organize large, complex organizations like banks. (Fortune)
These are the top 20 business schools for getting a job right away after your MBA. (Business Insider)
Here are six ways investors can seek to escape the consensus Wall Street herd by pursuing contrarian investment strategies in 2016. However, buyer beware: It’s hard to think “outside the box” and still be profitable without luck on your side. (Bloomberg)
Why you shouldn’t be afraid to say “No” to colleagues – and even your boss. (WSJ)
“The 12 Days of Employment Law Christmas” (Workforce)
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